Energy price cap for May 2026 predicted to rise by around 13%

Final predictions for the new energy price cap, which will be announced by 27 May and is due to come into effect on 1 July, indicate that it’s likely to increase by just under 13% from its current level to around £1,852 per year for an average usage household on a standard variable tariff paying by Direct Debit. 

The cap was widely expected to increase from its current level of £1,641, but with the assessment period for this new cap ending on 18 May, industry analysts will now be as confident as they can be about how much it will go up by.

This is the first price cap to be directly affected by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, so it will be the first solid indication of the influence that conflict is having on UK energy prices and customers’ bills.

What should customers do about the new price cap?

Customers on fixed tariffs don’t need to do anything because they’re protected from this price rise. 

The key action for customers on standard variable tariffs, though, is to run an energy comparison to see how much they could save by switching to a fixed deal, which only takes a few minutes. You can see how the predicted price cap changes are factored into your potential costs and savings.

There are fixed tariffs currently available which undercut the predicted price cap - some by as much as £200 for the average home.

Richard Neudegg, director of regulation at Uswitch, said: “A rise of this magnitude will be alarming, especially with higher costs forecast for the winter too. Thankfully, households can opt out of this price rise if they act now. 

“The cost of living is already stretched, but energy is one of the few areas where households can act to block rising bills.

“Fixing your energy deal will not only save you money right now, but importantly will protect you from the price rises predicted in July, locking in good rates for winter and beyond.

“For those currently on standard tariffs, doing nothing could be a costly mistake.”