Fix now or pay later: Households urged to lock in energy deals as supplier warns of bigger October price hike

• Wholesale gas prices have risen 15% over the last week amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East, adding fresh volatility to the market^[1]
• EDF has updated its October price cap forecast in response, with the supplier warning of a bigger increase than previously expected^[2]
• It follows a 13% jump in the price cap on 1 July – meaning households on standard variable tariffs could face a double-whammy of price rises this year^[3]
• The cheapest fixed tariff on the market is a 15-month deal from Outfox Energy at £1,424 for a typical home – £239 below the current price cap^[4]
• Uswitch.com is urging households not to wait until they turn the heating on to find out what winter will cost – securing a fixed tariff now offers protection against further rises.

 Households are being urged to fix their energy tariff now to avoid the risk of a shock bill when they switch the heating on this winter, as suppliers suggest a bigger-than-expected price cap increase in October, according to new analysis by Uswitch.com, the comparison and switching service.

 Wholesale UK gas prices have climbed 15% over the last week as the conflict in the Middle East continues to unsettle global energy markets^[1]. 

The volatility follows a pattern seen throughout the year, with Gulf tensions repeatedly disrupting supply expectations and pushing costs higher for the suppliers who buy energy months in advance of billing customers^[1].

 In response, EDF has updated its own price cap forecasts, warning that further volatility could push October's cap higher than previously thought, with yet another small rise suspected in January^[2]. The direction of travel for wholesale costs this month gives little reassurance to anyone still sitting on a standard variable tariff.

That uncertainty comes on top of a price cap that already rose 13% on 1 July, taking the typical household bill to £1,663 a year^[3]. Households who haven't switched since then are already paying more – and could be exposed to a second increase in October if the more cautious forecasts prove right.

Despite the volatility, there are many fixed tariffs on the market priced well below the cap. The cheapest is currently a 15-month deal from Outfox Energy, priced at £1,424 a year for a typical household – £239 below the current cap^[4]. 

Uswitch.com's advice is simple: don't wait until the heating goes on to find out what it's going to cost. Fixing now locks in today's rate for the length of the deal, protecting households from whatever happens to the cap in October and beyond.

Run a comparison at Uswitch.com to see what's available.

Ben Gallizzi, energy expert at Uswitch.com, comments: "With wholesale markets swinging on the back of the conflict in the Middle East, suppliers are already recalculating what October could look like – and the early signs point to another increase.

"Our advice to households is simple: don't wait until you put the heating on to find out what it's going to cost you. If you're still on a standard variable tariff, you're exposed to a market that's currently moving in the wrong direction.

“Choosing a fixed deal now means you know exactly what you'll pay through the coldest months. Run a quick comparison today, as the best rates on the market are changing quickly."

Run an energy comparison at Uswitch.com to switch to a fixed tariff.

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