Energy price cap February 2026: what are the final predictions?
With the February 2026 price cap announcement fast approaching, the assessment period where Ofgem tracks wholesale prices to determine the level the cap should be set at has just ended. So what are the final price cap predictions?
What are suppliers predicting for the price cap?
Energy suppliers track market movements to regularly update predictions for the next price cap (as much as that’s possible given market unpredictability). As of 18 February, major energy supplier predictions look like this:
| Supplier | February 2026 price cap prediction |
|---|---|
| British Gas | £1,635 |
| EDF Energy | £1,643 |
| E.ON Next | £1,633 |
| Octopus Energy | £1,630 |
There isn’t much to choose between them. All of these suppliers look to be factoring in the government’s bill reductions that are due to come into effect from 1 April, with Octopus predicting the biggest reduction (£128) from the current cap level of £1,758.
It’s important to remember that, while the government bill reductions are being reported as £150 coming off everyone’s bills, this isn’t exactly how it will work. The £150 is an average figure in the way that the price cap figure is an average annual usage cost.
The reduction will actually come through as a reduction in unit rates for gas and electricity, which means that the more energy you use, the more money you’ll save, and the less you use, the less you’ll save.
Should I wait until the price cap announcement to switch energy?
No - although bills are coming down, there are fixed deals currently available that would save more than the average of £150 if you’re on a standard variable tariff.
Richard Neudegg, director of regulation at Uswitch, said: “The government’s promised £150 reduction in energy bills will be reflected for the first time in this coming price cap, alongside the normal quarterly adjustments. It’s important to remember this upcoming reduction is based on personal energy usage - households that use less energy will see a smaller saving, while higher-usage households will see a larger one.
“But the real winners are households who are on or get themselves on to a cheap fixed tariff before April, as they’ll benefit the most from lower rates on their heating right now, and a further fall in price from April.
“Two-thirds of households are still paying over the odds on standard tariffs. By opting for a fixed deal, they could cut their heating bills right now when it matters most, and still see the benefit from the government’s intervention in April.
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