February 2026 energy price cap: how much is it likely to be?

The energy price cap is repriced four times a year. It determines how much suppliers are allowed to charge certain customers for each unit of gas and electricity they use, and it’s become a useful shorthand for whether energy bills are going up or down (although there’s much more nuance to bill prices than that). That means there’s always a lot of interest in whether the price cap will increase or decrease.

The first price cap for 2026 will come into effect in April. But how much is it likely to be?

Why is this price cap different?

This price cap is unusual in that we can be almost certain it’s going to come down from its current level of £1,758 per year for average use dual fuel households on standard variable tariffs paying by Direct Debit. This is because the government has pledged to take an average of £150 off customers’ bills from 1 April. This will be achieved by removing certain green levies from bills:

• Energy Company Obligation: this will end on 21 March 2026 and will cut a typical dual fuel household's energy bill by £62 a year
• Renewables Obligation: this will be partly funded by the government until March 2029, reducing a typical dual fuel household's energy bill by £92 a year.

What are the latest predictions for the February 2026 price cap?

In theory, an average reduction of £150 would bring the price cap level down to £1,608.

However, wholesale prices, which usually dictate where the price cap is set, have been relatively high during this price cap’s assessment period, so this is likely to offset the reduction. We don’t know how much it would offset it by, though.

For what it’s worth (bearing in mind usual price cap unpredictability), British Gas currently thinks it will be set at £1,645 per year.