Should you fix your energy deal to avoid May 2026 price hikes?
Is the price cap going up?
The price cap is almost certain to increase. This is due to the effects of the conflict in the Middle East filtering through to UK energy prices (albeit later than they might have done otherwise, because the conflict began just after the confirmation of the April to July price cap).
However, the exact rate of the increase is less certain. Analysts are currently predicting a 12-13% increase from the cap’s current level of £1,641 per year for an average usage household on a standard variable tariff paying by Direct Debit, which would put it at around £1,850.
| Price cap level | Annual energy cost for an average usage medium-sized household paying by Direct Debit |
|---|---|
| 1st July to 30th September (2025) | £1,720 |
| 1st October to 31st December (2025) | £1,755 |
| 1st January to 31st March (2026) | £1,758 |
| 1st April to 30th June (2026) | £1,641 |
| 1st July to 30th September (2026) (average of British Gas, EDF and E.ON Next's current predictions) | £1,849 |
| 1 October to 31 December (average of British Gas, EDF and E.ON Next's current predictions) | £1,932 |
Should you fix your energy deal?
If you’re on a standard variable energy tariff, the cost of your unit rates and standing charges will increase from 1 July, but you can take action to avoid that.
There are fixed energy deals on the market at the time of writing (20 May) which are priced around the level of the current cap (£1,641) but are less than the potential future level of £1,850, meaning you would save if you switched to one.
Crucially, as seen in the table above, prices are now expected to stay high for the rest of the year, rather than coming down. This means that switching to a fixed deal which runs for 12 months will shield you from high prices both now and going into the winter, when energy usage increases.
If you’re already on a fixed tariff, you’re protected from this initial increase, but it’s worth checking when your deal ends and making sure you’re ready to fix again when it does.
Run an energy comparison
Click here to compare energy prices and get started on your energy switch.
For the most accurate long-term view of your costs and savings, you can also compare deals with predicted July changes already factored in - you can't do this anywhere else.
